Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Diagnosing a New Coronavirus Infection during the Period of Seasonal Incidence Using the “Hypercube” Mathematical Model

Abstract

Abstract Background: With the emergence of new strains of coronavirus and the easing of previously imposed anti-COVID restrictions, it is important to respond quickly and ensure sufficient coverage of laboratory tests for people who come into contact with patients with coronavirus infection. Diagnostics by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) remain the most common and accessible method of laboratory confirmation of a new coronavirus infection COVID-19. The method has a huge number of positive aspects, but it is time-consuming. During an epidemiological outbreak, the speed at which a diagnosis is made is often crucial. In addition, the task of reducing material costs for reagents and consumables used in the analysis by PCR method is also relevant. Objective: The objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of the hypercube mathematical model application for diagnosing a new coronavirus infection COVID-19 by the PCR method. Materials and Methods: In the course of the work, 108 respiratory swabs were examined using the reverse transcription-PCR method; the swabs were tested by the classical method and using the hypercube mathematical algorithm. Results: By applying the group mixing method using the ’Hypercube’ mathematical model, when performing molecular genetic analyzes, we were convinced that it is inexpedient to use sample pooling during the seasonal peak incidence of coronavirus infection. Applying the method, the cost of reagents, consumables, and time increases by at least 1.5–2 times since all our studies required conducting additional clarifying tests. At the same time, our results show that the hypercube pooling technique does not affect the analytical sensitivity. Conclusion: The use of the Hypercube mathematical algorithm for SARS-CoV-2 virus testing during an increase in seasonal incidence is a mostly unpromising strategy since it increases the time of PCR analysis and the cost of reagents and consumables, as well as slows down the validation of the result.