Evaluation of the effect of JSC RZD transportation infrastructure availability on the risks of losses in the process of transportation

Abstract

Aim. The availability of transportation infrastructure facilities affects the quality of the transportation services provided by JSC RZD. At the same time, this effect may significantly differ depending on the operating conditions of the transportation infrastructure or a specific railway line and can cause various degrees of risk of damage to the transportation process. Such risks are defined as risks of train-hour losses due to transportation infrastructure failures. Planning dependability management activities under conditions of scarce resources requires targeted identification of the transportation infrastructure facilities whose availability most significantly affects the magnitude of the risks of damage to the transportation process. The aim of the paper is to develop a method for evaluating daily availability and identifying its correlation with the risk of train-hour losses. Methods. The authors used the methods of risk management, probability theory and mathematical statistics, correlation and regression analysis. Results. The paper suggests representing the daily availability indicator of JSC RZD’s transportation infrastructure facilities as a two-parameter gamma distribution and describing its effect on the risks of the transportation process with a regression model. Conclusions. The paper’s findings can be used as part of transportation infrastructure dependability planning and targeted allocation of resources, as well as for substantiating the dependability indicator when evaluating the practical capacity of railway lines and utilization ratio and in a number of other operational tasks.