Abstract
Abstract In this study, to investigate the climate change effect on meteorological drought in the next three decades of Varamin plain, the EC-EARTH model was selected from the (AR5) report with the high performance of temperature and precipitation simulation compared to the base period under RCP scenarios and then by LARS-WG software was downscaled. In addition, (intensity-duration) and the return period of drought indices of Standard precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in annual time series were evaluated. Results illustrated that the seasonal precipitation pattern has changed, and mean temperatures will increase by 1.4 °C compared to the base period. The results of the drought assessment showed that the intensity of drought in the future compared to the base period based on SPI and SPEI increased by 8 and 28%, respectively, indicating that the SPEI was more severe in all three scenarios than the SPI. It can mainly be explained by the contribution and effect of increasing the average temperature along with precipitation in the SPEI. Also, the return period of severe droughts under the RCP8.5 scenario for SPEI in the base and future periods is 8 and 6 years, respectively, which indicates a decrease in the return period of severe droughts and an increase in dry years in the future.
Highlights
Climate change and its impact on other extreme events such as drought have emerged as one of the most critical concerns of the last decades (Lorenzo & Alvarez 2020)
According to the definition of the return period, which is the time interval between events of the same magnitude, the results showed that the normal distribution with P1⁄40.9 is more fit with the Standard precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) drought intensity data under climate change scenarios over 30 years, using Hyfran-Plus software, (Figure 9)
It is vital to study the effects of climate change on drought
Summary
Climate change and its impact on other extreme events such as drought have emerged as one of the most critical concerns of the last decades (Lorenzo & Alvarez 2020). Climate change and the increasing trend of meteorological droughts have caused environmental, agricultural, and economic crises in all world regions, both in dry and wet climates (Li et al 2013). Changes in precipitation patterns and possible increases in drought frequency can be considered the main results of climate change caused by global warming, and with the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, the drought trend is likely to worsen in the future (EEA 2020). Several studies have been conducted on continental or regional scales to examine climate change and its effects on temperature, precipitation, and various drought indicators in the present and future periods (Duan et al 2021). The average monthly temperature increased from 0.6 to 1.3 °C, while the precipitation decreased by 6.5 to 31% annually
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