Abstract
Abstract. Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.
Highlights
Extreme rainfall events in arid and extreme arid regions have resulted in loss of life and extensive infrastructures damage, especially in urban areas
The paper evaluated the application of rainfall partial duration series at Madinah city, a vast urbanized area in Saudi Arabia
The analyses examined four model selection criteria: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC)
Summary
Extreme rainfall events in arid and extreme arid regions have resulted in loss of life and extensive infrastructures damage, especially in urban areas. Saudi Arabia, located in an arid region, has been experiencing major extreme rainfall events, generating flash floods with high frequencies and magnitudes in many of its major urban centres. The high urbanization rates in major cities, including Madinah, have resulted in extensive flood damage. Modelling of daily rainfall using various statistical models has been carried out in different parts of the world to provide better understanding of its contribution in the generation of major flooding event and flood protection infrastructures. The analysis relates the magnitude of storm events to their occurrence frequency through an application of suitable probability distribution functions
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