Evaluation of the ArcIOPS sea ice forecasts during 2021–2023

Abstract

The operational sea ice forecasts from the Arctic Ice Ocean Prediction System (ArcIOPS) during 2021–2023 are validated against satellite-retrieved sea ice concentration and drift data, in situ and reanalyzed sea ice thickness data. The results indicate that the ArcIOPS has a reliable capacity on the Arctic sea ice forecasts for the future 7 days. Over the validation period, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ArcIOPS sea ice concentration forecasts at a lead time of up to 168 h ranges between 8% and 20%, and the integrated ice edge error (IIEE) is lower than 1.6 × 106 km2 with respect to the Hai Yang 2B (HY-2B) sea ice concentration data. Compared to the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS), sea ice volume evolution from the ArcIOPS forecasts is closer to that derived from the CS2SMOS sea ice thickness observations, which have been assimilated into the ArcIOPS. Sea ice thickness comparisons at three locations in the Beaufort Sea between the ArcIOPS forecasts and in situ mooring observations also prove that the sea ice thickness forecasts are credible, which sets a solid basis for supporting ice-breaker navigation in the Arctic thick ice zone. The sea ice drift deviations between the ArcIOPS forecasts and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) data are lower than 4 cm/s in most of the months. Future work will emphasize on developing multi-variable data assimilation scheme and fully coupled air‒ice‒ocean forecasting system for the Arctic sea ice forecasts.