Evaluation of the application of moving epidemic method on making influenza epidemic thresholds in the 7 climate zones in China

Abstract

Objective: We planned to evaluate the effectiveness of moving epidemic method (MEM) in calculating influenza epidemic threshold of 7 climatic zones in China mainland. Methods: The positive rate of influenza virus was obtained from the National Influenza Surveillance Network System from 2010/2011 to 2017/2018. We divided the 31 provinces into 7 climatic zones according to previous literatures and applied MEM to calculate the influenza epidemic threshold of 2018/2019 influenza season for these climatic zones. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated to evaluate the effectiveness of MEM. Results: Pre-epidemic threshold (the positive rate of influenza virus) varied from 9.66% (temperate zone) to 16.36% (subtropical zone) for 2018/2019 influenza season. The gap between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic thresholds was less than 5% except for plateau zone. The sensitivity was 86.16% (95CI:66.81%-98.23%), the specificity was 94.92% (95CI: 91.13%-98.41%), the positive predictive value was 89.87% (95%CI: 84.39%-94.38%), the negative predictive value was 92.96% (95%CI: 84.46%-99.17%). Conclusion: Overall, moving epidemic Method performs well in calculating influenza epidemic threshold in China, much better than the previous study.