Evaluation of the AMPS Boundary Layer Simulations on the Ross Ice Shelf with Tower Observations

Abstract

AbstractFlight operations in Antarctica rely on accurate weather forecasts aided by the numerical predictions primarily produced by the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) that employs the polar version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) Model. To improve the performance of the model’s Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme, this study examines 1.5 yr of meteorological data provided by the 30-m Alexander Tall Tower! (ATT) automatic weather station on the western Ross Ice Shelf from March 2011 to July 2012. Processed ATT observations at 10-min intervals from the multiple observational levels are compared with the 5-km-resolution AMPS forecasts run daily at 0000 and 1200 UTC. The ATT comparison shows that AMPS has fundamental issues with moisture and handling stability as a function of wind speed. AMPS has a 10-percentage-point (i.e., RH unit) relative humidity dry bias year-round that is highest when katabatic winds from the Byrd and Mulock Glaciers exceed 15 m s−1. This is likely due to nonlocal effects such as errors in the moisture content of the katabatic flow and AMPS not parameterizing the sublimation from blowing snow. AMPS consistently overestimates the wind speed at the ATT by 1–2 m s−1, in agreement with previous studies that attribute the high wind speed bias to the MYJ scheme. This leads to reduced stability in the simulated PBL, thus affecting the model’s ability to properly simulate the transfer of heat and momentum throughout the PBL.