Abstract
The application of the expert opinion approach to problem identification and reliability evaluation of structural engineering systems is described in this paper. The general process of data acquisition by means of the expert opinion method is explained. The paper discusses the process of refinement of the collected data and statistical evaluation of results using several rounds of data collection from experts. The role of bias on the part of the expert, identification of different types of bias, strategies to control bias and the confidence of the expert in his/her response are also presented and discussed. The paper explains potential application of the method to structural system reliability evaluation and presents a specific case study on the reliability analysis of a utility network system.
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