Abstract
System dynamics is an approach to analyze the behavior of complex systems, such as the productive chains, strictly considering the inherent characteristics. This approach is based on mathematical concepts of nonlinear processes developed in mathematics and physics and consolidated in engineering. The concepts inherent in this approach assists in creating a mathematical model that represents a production chain by using computer simulation. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to present the formalization of the dynamic model of assessing the sustainability of Brazilian ethanol production. We analyzed the external environment and the scenarios needed for a deeper understanding of relation of cause and effect, causal loops and diagrams of flows and stocks because of the awareness stage, with regard to understanding the problems involved, according to methodology known as design science.
Highlights
The study concluded that beginning with the identification and characterized the elements for modeling and working with different scenarios simulation is better to understand the degree of sustainability of ethanol production
The main objective of this paper is to present the formalization of the dynamic model of assessing the sustainability of Brazilian ethanol production, its borders and the scenarios needed for a deeper understanding of cause and effect, causal loops and diagrams of flows and stocks
It is used to visual system dynamics modeling tool Vensim®, software provided by the company Ventana System Inc., which enables the analyst to link words with arrows representing relations between the variables as causal relationships
Summary
The Brazilian supply of ethanol grew in the period 1994-1998 when a crisis period began due to high inventory levels and a fall in the domestic market. During this period the price of sugar in the international market had increased and the supply of ethanol in the domestic market plummeted. With the fall in demand, the market share of ethanol-powered vehicles decreased from 75.5% in 1985 to 0.06% in 1997, with high financial and tax costs. This picture has reversed since 2001, when ethanol engines began being manufactured again. This trend has given rise to the emergence of a new ethanol industry since 2003 when flexible fuel engines reentered the market
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