Evaluation of success and risk factors for highway project performance through integrated analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy interpretive structural modelling

Abstract

Public Private Partnership (PPP) models for highway projects in India face huge uncertainties throughout all phases of the project. This paper aims to identify and evaluate the different success and risk factors that play an important role in determining the success and failure of PPP projects in the western part of India. In this paper, the authors evaluate 73 success and risk factors, using two multi-criteria decision making methods. Based on literature and authors personal experience, these 73 factors have been identified from five different phases of the project under study. Analytical Hierarchy Process has been used for evaluation of the identified factors, and ranking has been done accordingly. After that, Fuzzy Interpretive Structural Modelling has been applied to 16 factors which have been identified through authors personal experience to quantify the level of risk involved in all those factors. Problem pertaining to land acquisition (F10) is evaluated as the most critical factor due to its very high risk level. Similarly, the other two factors are resettlement and rehabilitation problems (F11) and delay in approval of detailed project report (F4). These issues should be considered by the authorities for formulation of model concession agreements of future PPP road projects.