Evaluation of student failure in higher education by an innovative strategy of fuzzy system combined optimization algorithms and AI

Abstract

This research suggests two novel metaheuristic algorithms to enhance student performance: Harris Hawk's Optimizer (HHO) and the Earthworm Optimization Algorithm (EWA). In this sense, a series of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) proposed models were trained using these methods. The selection of the best-fit model depends on finding an excellent connection between inputs and output(s) layers in training and testing datasets (e.g., a combination of expert knowledge, experimentation, and validation techniques). The study's primary result is a division of the participants into two performance-based groups (failed and non-failed). The experimental data used to build the models measured fourteen process variables: relocation, gender, age at enrollment, debtor, nationality, educational special needs, current tuition fees, scholarship holder, unemployment, inflation, GDP, application order, day/evening attendance, and admission grade. During the model evaluation, a scoring system was created in addition to using mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and area under the curve (AUC) to assess the efficacy of the utilized approaches. Further research revealed that the HHO-ANFIS is superior to the EWA-ANFIS. With AUC = 0.8004 and 0.7886, MSE of 0.62689 and 0.65598, and MAE of 0.64105 and 0.65746, the failure of the pupils was assessed with the most significant degree of accuracy. The MSE, MAE, and AUC precision indicators showed that the EWA-ANFIS is less accurate, having MSE amounts of 0.71543 and 0.71776, MAE amounts of 0.70819 and 0.71518, and AUC amounts of 0.7565 and 0.758. It was found that the optimization algorithms have a high ability to increase the accuracy and performance of the conventional ANFIS model in predicting students' performance, which can cause changes in the management of the educational system and improve the quality of academic programs.