Abstract
We compared the cumulative seismic slip of interplate earthquakes (≥M5.5) with relative plate motion at subduction zones. By assuming that each interplate earthquake occurred on a stick–slip patch, we used the slip history of each patch to calculate the interplate slip in the surrounding area. We considered that areas in which interplate earthquakes occurred but that had small cumulative slips compared with relative plate motion were accumulating strain, and we calculated the size of these areas. We first used this method to test the rupture areas of six M9-class interplate earthquakes that have occurred during the past 100 years. The cumulative seismic slip preceding and following the six earthquakes was smaller than the relative plate motion in the rupture areas of the earthquakes. We interpret the areas of slip-deficient stick–slip patches to be the rupture areas of future huge earthquakes. We applied the same procedure to global subduction zones and found that slip-deficient stick–slip patches with large spatial extents (equivalent to the rupture area of M9-class earthquakes) occur in an additional 25 locations. Considering that six M9-class earthquakes have occurred in the past 110 years and that the recurrence interval in each case is probably between a few hundred and a thousand years, it is not surprising that 25 regions globally are capable of producing M9-class earthquakes. These regions may be the most likely candidates for the rupture areas of future M9-class interplate earthquakes.
Highlights
Interplate earthquakes with magnitudes of ≥9 (M9-class earthquakes) occur infrequently, they cause severe damage and fatalities over huge areas, as shown by the 2004 Sumatra (Mw 9.2) and 2011 Tohoku (Mw 9.0) earthquakes
For each interplate earthquake up to M8, we assume that a stick–slip patch exists and we evaluate the interplate slip deficit by comparing the cumulative slip of each patch with the relative plate motion
McCann et al (1979) classified this region as the site of no great earthquakes based on its earthquake history, our results show that it contains many stick–slip patches with cumulative seismic slips smaller than the relative plate motion, indicating that this region is a likely location of future M9-class events
Summary
Interplate earthquakes with magnitudes of ≥9 (M9-class earthquakes) occur infrequently, they cause severe damage and fatalities over huge areas, as shown by the 2004 Sumatra (Mw 9.2) and 2011 Tohoku (Mw 9.0) earthquakes. Such earthquakes can rupture subduction zones along hundreds of kilometers and generate destructive tsunami waves. Geodetic data are useful for monitoring the source regions of huge interplate earthquakes during interseismic periods. Several geodetic inversion studies using an on-land Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network reported that the source region of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake had been locked from at least. Geodetic observations in the studies mentioned above were disrupted by the M7-class earthquake in 2003
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