Evaluation of spatio-temporal variations in chlorophyll-a in Lake Naivasha, Kenya: remote-sensing approach

Abstract

Restoration of the ecosystem services and functions of lakes requires an understanding of the turbidity dynamics in order to arrive at informed environmental management decisions. The understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of turbidity requires frequent monitoring of the turbidity components such as chlorophyll-a concentration. In this study, we explored the use of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aqua (MODIS-Aqua) satellite data in studying the spatio-temporal changes in chlorophyll-a concentration in Lake Naivasha, a turbid tropical system. The temporal trend of chlorophyll-a concentration over the study period in the lake was also evaluated. The temporal trend assessment was achieved through the removal of periodic seasonal interference using Seasonal-Trend decomposition based on the LOESS (Local Regression) procedure. The resultant chlorophyll-a concentration maps derived from MODIS-Aqua satellite data give an indication of the monthly spatial variation in chlorophyll-a concentration from 2002 to 2012. The results of regression analyses between satellite-derived chlorophyll-a and in situ measurements reveal a high level of precision, but with a measureable bias with the satellite underestimating actual in situ measurements (R2 = 0.65, P < 0.001). Although the actual values of the chlorophyll-a concentrations are underestimated, the significant relationship between satellite-derived chlorophyll-a and in situ measurements provides reliable information for studying spatial variations and temporal trends. In 2009 and 2010, it was difficult to detect chlorophyll-a from the MODIS-Aqua imagery, and this coincided with a period of the lowest water levels in Lake Naivasha. An inverse relationship between de-seasoned water level and chlorophyll-a concentration was evident. This study shows that MODIS-Aqua satellite data provide useful information on the spatio-temporal variations in Lake Naivasha, which is useful in establishing general trends that are more difficult to determine through routine ground measurements.