Evaluation of spatiotemporal trends and predictive modeling of non-accidental trauma utilizing geographical information systems

Abstract

BackgroundActs of violence can be considered random when viewed singularly, but are appreciable as patterns and clusters of an epidemic. Violence begets violence: it has been shown that people exposed to violence are more likely to harm themselves, their families, and members of the community. Our previous manuscript on this subject demonstrated distinct clusters of violent trauma, where each subtype appeared to have its own domain.MethodsThe location, date, time of day, and mechanism of injury of all non-accidental trauma patients from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2013 were collected and analyzed. Kernel density analysis was used to identify areas of increased activity and these were compared by year. The areas identified were mapped by their latitude and longitude. The data for the year 2013 were used to determine the potential for the predictive value of the prior 5 years.ResultsDefinite trends can be observed in the temporal distribution of trauma, with a higher incidence of violent trauma occurring ...