Evaluation of spatially explicit emission scenario of land-use change and biomass burning using a process-based biogeochemical model

Abstract

Using a socioeconomic scenario of representative concentration scenarios, terrestrial emissions from biomass burning and anthropogenic land-use change for the twenty-first century are evaluated in a spatially explicit manner using a biogeochemical model. The model is validated with the historical net land-use change CO2 emission and biomass-burning trace gas emission: net land-use change CO2 emission for 1990s to be from 1.03 to 1.53 Pg C year−1 and black carbon emission from biomass burning during 1997–2000 to be 3.1 Tg BC year−1. For future emissions, uncertainty due to CO2 concentration and land-use change scenario is examined using sensitivity experiments and reveals significant effect of CO2 on the biomass-burning emissions in terms of direct effect of vegetation mass and the indirect feedback through the fire ignition probability. It also reveals the importance of CO2 fertilization on net land-use change CO2 emission through the regrowing absorption in abandoned agricultural land.