Abstract
Este trabalho propoe uma metodologia para obtencao de dados de irradiacao solar incidente na superficie da regiao Norte do Brasil utilizando o modelo numerico regional de mesoescala BRAMS em conjunto com uma tecnica de remocao de vies. Este tipo de solucao se faz necessario em virtude dos erros sistematicos inerentes as simulacoes, ocasionados, por exemplo, pela dificuldade na representacao da variabilidade da cobertura de nuvens. A tecnica estatistica de remocao de vies foi desenvolvida utilizando dados observacionais de irradiacao solar de estacoes meteorologicas do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET) operando na area de estudo ao longo do ano de 2009. Verificou-se que o modelo BRAMS e capaz de reproduzir satisfatoriamente os ciclos mensais e diarios da irradiacao solar, mas existe uma clara tendencia de superestimar os valores em relacao aos dados observados. A validacao com dados de superficie mostrou que a tecnica estatistica de remocao do vies conseguiu reduzir significativamente estes erros, aproximando os valores simulados daqueles observados em superficie. Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:Tabela normal; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Times New Roman,serif;} a b s t r a c t This study presents a methodology to get surface incoming solar irradiation at the Brazilian Northern region by using the regional mesoscale model BRAMS together with a statistical correction for bias removal. This methodology is required to get solar irradiation forecasts due to the systematic errors in solar data provided by numerical simulations related to the cloud variability. The statistical technique proposed for bias removal was developed using observational data acquired at automated weather stations of operated by the Brazilian Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in the study area for the whole year of 2009. The results showed that BRAMS model can simulate monthly and daily cycles of solar radiation satisfactorily, but there is a clear tendency to overestimate values when compared to the observational data. Validations from surface data showed that this statistical technique can significantly reduce these errors, approaching the simulated values to those observed in surface. Keywords : Solar Energy, Solar Irradiation, BRAMS.
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