Evaluation of Social Risk Using Structural Equation Model

Wei Shan,Hengwen Liu,Yichao Pan,Hengqing Tong

doi:10.4236/ib.2010.22023

Abstract

A quantitative method to evaluate social risk using structural equation model (SEM) is developed. Evaluation of social risk is the essential step in early warning of social risk. On the basic of the society stability, a scientific and applicable index system of social risk is put forward, which includes 6 first-level indexes and 40 second-level indexes. Based on these indexes and relationships among them, a structural equation model is introduced, and an improved partial least square (PLS) algorithm by finding the best iterative initial value is proposed.

Highlights

Nowadays, social conflict of different interest has become more and more intense, which result in potential social risks
Our social risk management gets along with economic mechanism very well, but because of the relationship and sequence between the reformation and social risk management, it's inevitable that social risk management policy often lags behind the reform
An evaluation system for social risk should be established in order to accurately predict and rapidly react in very early stage, with the purpose of minimizing social and economic losing

Summary

Introduction

Social conflict of different interest has become more and more intense, which result in potential social risks. The Club of Rome raised considerable public attention in 1972 with its report The Limits to Growth, a brilliant publication which is influential still today It predicted that economic growth could not continue indefinitely because of the limited availability of natural resources [2]. Linfei Song has begun the research on social risk early warning using the methods of social indicators since 1990s. The summarizing coefficients in this index system are designed aforehand. Yaojun Yan built up the social stability early warning system, which includes 55 indexes containing the domain of political, economic, social natrural and international environment. In this paper, we introduce a method in which the summarizing coefficients are calculated by samples, so it is more objective and convincing, and could offer more deep analysis for the index systems

Measure the Social Stability by SEM

The Best Initial Value in PLS Algorithm of SEM

Findings

Final Remarks