Evaluation of seismic hazard with probabilistic approach for Antakya Province (Turkey)

Abstract

Antakya province is tectonically affected by Dead Sea and East Anatolian faults and the Cyprus arc. Although there had been major and devastating earthquakes in the historical period, the fact that there is no major earthquake in the instrumental period increases the risk of seismic hazard of the region. In this study, it is aimed to perform a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis application for Antakya province, Turkey. For this purpose, the earthquakes (Mw ≥ 4) which occurred between 1900 and 2017 were used. Nine seismic source zones that could affect the Antakya province were identified and the seismic hazard parameters calculated for each zone. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) values that can occur in a possible earthquake were obtained according to a recurrence period of 475 yrs by using two different attenuation relationships and presented with iso-acceleration maps. The calculated PGA values in the study area are found as between 0.32 and 0.57 g for both attenuation relationships. The areas located on the north of Kirikhan district have the highest risk of seismic hazard in the study area according to determined PGA values.