Evaluation of scenarios of constrained and unconstrained airport growth

Abstract

This paper presents an evaluation of Scenarios for constrained and unconstrained airport growth. These Scenarios are characterized by profits and costs relevant for particular actors/stakeholders who are directly and indirectly involved. The profits are those of the air transport industry (airports, airlines, and ATC (Air Traffic Control)) and the society. The costs are those of the impacts on the society and environment, internalized as externalities mainly affecting the nearby (local, regional) communities. For this purpose, a methodology consisting of analytical models for estimating particular profits and costs/externalities of the specified Scenarios of growth and a CBA (Cost Benefit Analysis) for evaluating these Scenarios was developed and applied using the inputs from a large European airport. This particular airport has been facing the issue of choosing between the two above-mentioned Scenarios for a long time. The results indicate that the constrained growth in the medium- to long-term is more feasible if the airport cannot provide subsidies for investments into the airside infrastructure (in this case - a new runway). The aviation industry (airport, airlines, ATC (Air Traffic Control)) and the society as well can generally benefit from the unconstrained airport growth. Nevertheless, the overall social-economic feasibility of the Scenario of unconstrained growth in the given airport case was shown to be marginal compared to its counterpart - Scenario of constrained airport growth.