Evaluation of Rooftop Photovoltaic Power Generation Potential Based on Deep Learning and High-Definition Map Image

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is booming in rural areas, not only to meet the energy needs of local farmers but also to provide additional power to urban areas. Existing methods for estimating the spatial distribution of PV power generation potential either have low accuracy and rely on manual experience or are too costly to be applied in rural areas. In this paper, we discuss three aspects, namely, geographic potential, physical potential, and technical potential, and propose a large-scale and efficient PV potential estimation system applicable to rural rooftops in China. Combined with high-definition map images, we proposed an improved SegNeXt deep learning network to extract roof images. Using the national standard Design Code for Photovoltaic Power Plants (GB50797-2012) and the Bass model, computational results were derived. The average pixel accuracy of the improved SegNeXt was about 96%, which well solved the original problems of insufficient finely extracted edges, poor adhesion, and poor generalization ability and can cope with different types of buildings. Leizhou City has a geographic potential of 1500 kWh/m2, a physical potential of 25,186,181.7 m2, and a technological potential of 442.4 MW. For this paper, we innovatively used the Bass Demand Diffusion Model to estimate the installed capacity over the next 35 years and combined the Commodity Diffusion Model with the installed capacity, which achieved a good result and conformed to the dual-carbon “3060” plan for the future of China.