Evaluation of Return Period and Occurrence Probability of the Maximum Magnitude Earthquakes in Iraq and Surroundings

Abstract

It has long been clear that earthquake prediction is important from both social and economic perspectives; therefore, the practical objective of today’s earthquake seismology researchers is an effective earthquake prediction program. The purpose of this study is to estimate earthquake probabilities and return periods using an updated earthquake catalogue (1900-2019) for Iraq and its surroundings. Weibull’s formula and inverse Weibull’s formula were employed to calculate the period of return and the occurrence probability of the maximum magnitude earthquake. The return period for earthquakes magnitudes 5 and 7Mw was 1.1 and 10.54 years, respectively, while the occurrence probability was 93.79% and 9.5%, respectively. The greatest magnitude is 7.7, with a 121-year return period and likelihood of approximately 0.82%. The probability of exceedance increased as the time period increased. The return duration was greater for earthquakes of higher magnitudes.