Evaluation of Regional Carrying Capacity under Economic-Social-Resource-Environment Complex System: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

As a rigid constraint of the scale and speed of regional economic-social development, carrying capacity is an endogenous variable of regional sustainable development potential. Concepts such as ecological footprint and virtual water have been introduced into the research field of carrying capacity, but dynamic and comprehensive problems in carrying capacity have not been effectively solved. This paper attempts to overcome these limitations by taking the regional factor aggregation degree as the weight and the regional green GDP as the carrying object. Based on the economic-social supplying force, resource supporting force, and environmental constraint force, from the perspective of comprehensive factors assessment, we have constructed an evaluation system of regional carrying capacity index, including mineral, water, and bioecological resources, as well as labor and other factors, and evaluated the regional carrying capacity of 11 provinces and cities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt. The results indicate that (1) the supporting force of the resource subsystem becomes the most critical factor affecting the carrying capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the cross-regional flow potential of resource factors increases the regional carrying capacity threshold. (2) The regional carrying capacity, economic-social, resource and environmental subsystems of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are steadily improving, and the overall trend is positive. The quantified dynamic evaluation of regional economic-social, resource and environmental carrying capacity provides a theoretical support for the construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt eco-priority green development demonstration area.