Evaluation of pushing out of children from all English state schools: Administrative data cohort study of children receiving social care and their peers

Abstract

BackgroundPushing out (off-rolling) occurs where pupils are illegally excluded from school. Those receiving children's social care (CSC) services (children in need (CiN), on child protection plans (CPPs) or looked after (CLA)) are thought to be at increased risk, but limited evidence inhibits understanding of this phenomenon. The extent of pushing out can be inferred from non-enrolment in administrative data. ObjectiveTo estimate proportions of children not enrolled across secondary school (aged 11–16, up to year 11) and to explore the association between CSC history and non-enrolment in year 10/11. Participants and setting>1 M pupils in year 7 (aged 11/12) in English state schools, 2011/12 and 2012/13. MethodsWe estimated the proportion of children not enrolled across years 8 to 11, disaggregated by CSC history. We assessed with regression modelling the association between CSC history and non-enrolment in years 10/11. ResultsOf children without CSC history, 3.8% had ≥1 year not enrolled by year 11. This was higher in those with a history CiN (8.1%), CPP (9.4%) or CLA (10.4%) status. The odds of non-enrolment in years 10/11 were higher among those with CLA history vs non-exposed peers (OR 4.76, 95% CI 4.49–5.05) as well as in those with CPP history (3.60, 3.39–3.81) and CiN history (2.53, 2.49–2.58). History of special educational needs further increased non-enrolment odds, including after confounder adjustment. ConclusionsFindings imply that children with CSC history are more likely to be pushed out from school than children without, especially those with special educational needs.