Evaluation of provincial forest ecological security and analysis of the driving factors in China via the GWR model

Abstract

Economic and social factors pose an enormous threat to forest ecological security, which in turn affects the development of ecological civilization. This paper applies a geographically weighted regression model to study the impact of urbanization, industrial structure, and foreign direct investment on forest ecological security of 30 provinces in 2013 and 2018 and reveals the spatial differences of various influencing factors in different provinces. First, the overall forest ecological security in China is at an average level, with slight improvement. Second, urbanization has the greatest impact on forest ecological security in all provinces, which shows a rising trend. Third, the positive impact of industrial structure on forest ecological security has improved. Fourth, in 2013, FDI (foreign direct investment) had a negative correlation with forest ecological security. In 2018, FDI had a positive impact on the forest ecological security index of 16 provinces, while it had a negative correlation in other provinces. Therefore, it is necessary to formulate a coordinated security improvement plan for neighboring provinces. The government should promote rural revitalization, plan the layout of cities rationally, increase the proportion of tertiary industry, appropriately raise access barriers to foreign investment and strengthen environmental supervision over existing foreign-invested enterprises.