Evaluation of Production Process and Prediction with Cumulative Curve.

Abstract

Cumulative curve method is useful technique for the production process control and often used in the manufacturing systems. Cumulative curve, which is composed with the input amount of materials and the output amount of completions, shows the physical flow from the start time to the end time of the production. But the cumulative curve is difficult to formulate to the equation. This paper proposes the GM (1, 1) model for the analysis of cumulative curve. It shows methods to clarify the shape and property of several cumulative curves from the theoretical formula of the model, to utilize the parameter a and b of the model as the scale which evaluates the production rate and to predict cumulative curves. The inventory quantity and lead time are also obtained from the theoretical formula, when the value estimated in the GM (1, 1) model is applied to the GM (1, 2) model. In addition, these models are possible to applicate for daily management practice for the prediction equation.