Evaluation of post-disaster home livability for coastal communities in a changing climate

Abstract

With sea level rise and hurricane intensification projected in coming years due to climate change, the risk to coastal communities is greatly amplified. In the wake of potential future hurricane scenarios, various infrastructure systems, including residential buildings, power and water systems, and transportation networks, could be damaged or disrupted, leading to uninhabitable homes and communities for extended periods following disasters. To quantify the potential effects of climate change on the post-disaster livability of coastal homes and communities, a framework is proposed integrating the vulnerabilities of various interconnected infrastructure systems under different climate change scenarios. A novel metric, the post-disaster home livability index, is developed to quantify the resilience and habitability of homes and communities following a natural disaster. To evaluate climate change effects on the community livability under a future Hurricane Sandy scenario in the year 2100, a case study is conducted for a community in the state of Connecticut. To compare different possible emissions scenarios, two potential future representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, RCP2.6, and RCP8.5, are considered alongside uncertainties in the future climate's effects. The framework is used to evaluate the benefits of different structural adaptations, such as building elevation or power system maintenance. Such actions are found to have the potential to reduce storm impacts such that future Sandy's impacts on post-disaster damages and livability could be of similar or even lesser severity than the original Sandy's. These findings can help inform enhanced adaptation strategies to improve community resilience.