Evaluation of post extreme floods in high mountain region: A case study of the Melamchi flood 2021 ​at the Koshi River Basin in Nepal

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events and associated hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. On June 2021, a devastating flash flood occurred in the Melamchi River in Nepal causing immense destruction to lives and property. The flood event was cascading in nature and associated with multiple driving factors. This study evaluates the post-extreme flood conditions of the Melamchi Flood 2021 (MF21). Rainfall, streamflow (discharge), and gauge height (water level) data of the nearest stations were analyzed. Since there was a lack of reliable instantaneous river discharge during the disastrous MF21, this study developed the flow rating curves at hydrometric stations. Post-extreme flood was evaluated considering upstream catchment hydrology, glacial lake outbursts, landslide damming, and the hydrodynamic propagations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model and gauge-to-gauge (G2G) correlation. The results were then compared to field observations. The HEC-RAS model was simulated for several flood frequency periods in different return periods (namely 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years). Results showed that the average 24 ​h gauge height and discharge at Nakote station (a few km downstream of landslide damming) are 15.88 ​m and 169.18 ​m3/s, in which the model-based highest frequency of 1-h extreme flood and return period can reach 716 ​m3/s in 1000 years. During MF21, the discharge of the Nakote region at the 10 ​min intervals was estimated to be with a maximum of 7162.10 ​m3/s, an average of 2207.13 ​m3/s and a minimum of 237.44 ​m3/s.Additionally, the outburst discharge from glacial lake at high elevation was estimated to be 295.14 ​m3/s contributing to downstream flooding. The model-based discharge during the past flood period was also estimated in 9 cross-section points of the river in which discharge at the damming area was 63.81 ​m3/s and downstream Dumredovan was 1206.58 ​m3/s. This research provides valuable insights to post-extreme flood evaluation and the approach can be used for other watersheds in evaluating post flood conditions.