Abstract
Medical decision analysts are interested in the changes in health benefits from inappropriate ordering of tests, imperfect information from tests, and imperfect results of treatments. Operational failures in the decision-making sequence, caused by human and system factors, may also alter health benefits. An evaluation of operational failures in follow-up of positive urine cultures in pediatric patients is reported. Branching criteria were developed by physician representatives from each of eight pediatric group practices to evaluate the care of patients aged 6 months to 16 years, inclusive. Of 858 cases evaluated, 52 percent failed at one or more nodes in the criteria sequence. Rates of failure at individual nodes among cases reaching these nodes varied from 2 percent to 48 percent. Like those of other researchers, our findings suggest that decision analyses that do not take operational failures into consideration may inaccurately predict the yield of health benefits achieved in actual practice.
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