Abstract

Olive production has expanded significantly from the Mediterranean Basin into the New World over the last two decades. In some cases, cultivars of European origin have been introduced at a large commercial scale with little previous evaluation of potential productivity. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether a temperature-driven simulation model developed in the Mediterranean Basin to predict normal flowering occurrence and flowering date using cultivar-specific thermal requirements was suitable for the low latitude areas of Northwest Argentina. The model was validated at eight sites over several years and a wide elevation range (350–1200 m above mean sea level) for three cultivars (‘Arbequina’, ‘Frantoio’, ‘Leccino’) with potentially different chilling requirements. In ‘Arbequina’, normal flowering was observed at almost all sites and in all years, while normal flowering events in ‘Frantoio’ and ‘Leccino’ were uncommon. The model successfully predicted if flowering would be normal in 92% and 83% of the cases in ‘Arbequina’ and ‘Frantoio’, respectively, but was somewhat less successful in ‘Leccino’ (61%). When flowering occurred, the predicted flowering date was within ± 7 days of the observed date in 71% of the cases. Overall, the model results indicate that cultivar-specific simulation models may be used as an approximate tool to predict whether individual cultivars will be successful in new growing areas. In Northwest Argentina, the model could be used to identify cultivars to replace ‘Frantoio’ and ‘Leccino’ and to simulate global warming scenarios.

Highlights

  • In the last 20 years, there has been considerable expansion of olive production at low latitudes (28-32° S) in Argentina, often including the planting of well-known cultivars from the Mediterranean Basin

  • The environmental temperature regime considered to be optimal for olive production typically occurs between the latitudes of 30° and 45° under Mediterranean climate conditions with mild winters and long, warm summers (Bongi & Palliotti, 1994)

  • Expansion of olive production to lower than traditional latitudes requires information about the flowering response of different cultivars to key environmental factors such as temperature (Orlandi et al, 2010b; Aguilera et al, 2014)

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Summary

Introduction

In the last 20 years, there has been considerable expansion of olive production at low latitudes (28-32° S) in Argentina, often including the planting of well-known cultivars from the Mediterranean Basin. The suitability of many of these cultivars for the agroclimatic conditions found in Northwestern Argentina was uncertain (Gómez del Campo et al, 2010). They were incorporated into large-scale commercial farms (100-1 000 ha) that represent a significant capital investment in the trees themselves as well as the necessary infrastructure. At lower latitudes (Mexico, Peru, Argentina), Ayerza & Sibbett (2001) have reported higher temperatures in winter and much shorter periods with chilling temperatures than in traditional European olive growing areas. Cold fronts in some regions such as Northwest Argentina can still result in drastic temperature reductions with below zero temperatures several times a year and a direct risk of frost damage to reproductive buds

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