Evaluation of November 23, 2022, Duzce Earthquake data with Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Abstract

An earthquake with a magnitude of 5.9 Mw occurred in Düzce (Gölyaka) on November 23, 2022. A rupture occurred on the Karadere Segment, which is a section of the North Anatolian Fault zone. According to the investigations, an 8 km section that was not broken in the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake was broken by this earthquake and caused the earthquake. Station number 8105, one of the stations of the Disaster and Emergency Presidency, measured the maximum ground acceleration of the earthquake as 0.6g. This value is above the PGA value taken from the hazard map of the region. This earthquake in the Marmara region attracts the attention of researchers both because it is close to the 1999 Gölcük Earthquake and because there is an earthquake expectation in Istanbul and its surroundings. Ground motion prediction equations are created by researchers to predict the effects of future earthquakes. The aim of this study is to compare the earthquake data considered in the study with 5 of the ground motion equations developed for Turkey. PGA data were collected and compared with the 5 attenuation relations used from the stations taking measurements from the earthquake, and the compatibility of the earthquake with the 5 existing models was examined. As a result of the study, it was determined that among these attenuation relations, the attenuation relations prepared using the data in the region where the earthquake occurred showed a higher fit. In addition, it has been observed that low pga values at stations farther from the epicenter of the earthquake fit better with the curves obtained from the attenuation relations. The number of data sets used in attenuation relations and the study area increase the possibility of estimating earthquake parameters. The data set used in the AR4 attenuation relationship used in the study and the fact that the region taken into consideration is the region where the earthquake occurred increased the data-model compatibility. It was concluded that existing attenuation relationships should be updated in order to better predict future earthquakes and their effects.