Evaluation of Nonlinear Fourier-Based Maximum Wave Height Predictors Under the Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation

Abstract

Abstract Rogue waves are extreme waves in the ocean that appear from nowhere and disappear without a trace. They are usually modelled by the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLS), which describes nonlinear phenomena such as modulational instability and solitons on finite backgrounds. In this study, the periodic nonlinear Fourier transform (NFT) for the NLS equation is applied to simulate ocean surface waves in deep water. The temporal and spatial structures of surface waves are obtained by evolving JONSWAP time series using the NLS equation. Several parameters extracted from the NFT spectra of the initial time series are investigated as predictors for the maximum wave height during evolution. We investigate several parameters from the literature, and find that with suitably optimized coefficients, a NFT-based parameter based on the largest unstable mode has a good correlation with the overall maximum wave amplitude. This new spectral criterion can contribute to rogue wave forecasting under extreme sea states.