Evaluation of NCMRWF numerical weather prediction models for SHAR region

Abstract

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) generates the weather forecasts from global/ regional models, giving an opportunity for demonstrating different applications of these forecasts for various strategic needs of India. Sriharikota Range (SHAR), is a satellite launching center of India, functioning under the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). Weather forecasts are very crucial for space launch operations. An accurate and on-time weather prediction at the launching site is highly needed during various stages, which plays a critical role in taking the “Go/ No Go” decision. During launch periods, weather forecasts over the SHAR region are prepared from the NCMRWF models with a special emphasis and shared them with ISRO on real time basis. In this paper, these forecasts are validated through observations at Chennai in the best possible way. The various skills are evaluated during different seasons, the products are found practically useful for SHAR launching projects in recent times. The results show that model variables of geopotential height, relative humidity, zonal and meridional winds agree with observations at SHAR, and 72 h forecast has better agreement.