Evaluation of Meteorological Drought Characteristics under Climate Change over the Agriculture-dominated Marathwada Region, India

Abstract

<p>Drought is one of the most precarious phenomena associated with serious repercussions, especially over the agriculture-dominated regions. This study presents an investigation of drought characteristics over the Marathwada Region, Maharashtra, India, which is infamous for a large number of farmer suicides. The monthly rainfall data for 1951-2020 is collected from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Two widely used drought indices, viz., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) are employed to characterize the drought events. Moreover, droughts under future climate i.e., from 2021 to 2090, are investigated using an ensemble of different CMIP5 models for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results revealed the Marathwada Region to be prone to droughts due to a remarkable inter-annual variability in rainfall. The droughts are predicted to become more severe, frequent, and persistent in the future. From the comparative assessment of two indices, EDI is found to be superior in capturing the onset of the droughts and hence, can be handy in drought monitoring purposes. Since Marathwada Region has a monsoon-dominated climate with high agricultural importance, the information reported in this study will help devise water management strategies to minimize the repercussions of droughts. Besides, the methodology presented will encourage its replication over different regions of the world that have been affected by climate change and its ramifications, mostly in the form of frequent droughts or lower crop yields.</p>