Evaluation of Hub‐Height Wind Forecasts Over the New York Bight

Abstract

ABSTRACTAs offshore wind energy development accelerates in the United States, it is important to assess the accuracy of hub‐height wind forecasts from numerical weather prediction models over the ocean. Leveraging approximately 2 years of Doppler lidar observations from buoys in the New York Bight, we evaluate 80‐m wind speed forecasts from two weather models: the High‐Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) atmospheric model and the Global Forecast System (GFS) coupled atmosphere‐ocean model. These models have different horizontal grid spacing, vertical layering, initialization methods, and parameterizations of boundary layer mixing and surface–atmosphere interactions. Despite these differences, the models demonstrate similar and highly skillful short‐term forecasts at three measurement sites. At the Hudson Southwest location that provides a full year of data, their performance is statistically indistinguishable: root mean square error (RMSE) = 2.1 m/s and the Pearson correlation coefficient for 24‐h forecasts of both models, and RMSE = 2.6 m/s and 0.83 for 48‐h forecasts. Twenty‐four‐hour forecasts also exhibit skill in predicting quiescent winds and winds associated with maximum turbine power. By Day 10, GFS forecasts on average have almost no skill. The short‐term forecast skill by the HRRR and GFS does not strongly depend on season or time of day, yet we find some dependence of the models' performance on near‐surface stability. Additionally, 4‐ to 14‐day forecasts by the GFS exhibit lower RMSE during summer relative to other seasons. The high skill of the HRRR and GFS short‐term forecasts establishes confidence in their utility for offshore wind energy maintenance and operation.