Abstract
In order to accurately estimate uncertainty of fission source distribution in a Monte Carlo calculation, a theoretical model predicting behavior of higher order modes in fission source distribution at each cycle is proposed considering the inter-cycle correlation. In a Monte Carlo calculation, statistical noise stimulates higher order modes in fission source distribution at each cycle thus the fission source distribution may not be fully converged to a fundamental mode even if number of power iterations is sufficiently large. This is especially true for a large geometry with high dominance ratio and is one of the root cause of underestimation of statistical uncertainty. In the present model, a fission source distribution is expanded by a series of higher order modes and their behaviors are estimated by variation of expansion coefficients at each cycle. The expansion coefficients show fluctuation due to statistical noise during a Monte Carlo calculation. By observing decay ratio of higher order modes in PWR single assembly geometry, validity of the present theoretical model is confirmed. Furthermore, behaviors of higher order mode components in PWR single or multi fuel assemblies geometry are investigated.
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