Evaluation of GPFARM for Simulation of Forage Production and Cow–Calf Weights

Abstract

A modeling approach that assesses impacts of alternative management decisions prior to field implementation would reduce decision-making risk for rangeland and livestock production system managers. However, the accuracy and functionality of models should be verified before they are used as decision-making tools. The goal of this study was to evaluate the functionality of the Great Plains Framework for Agricultural Resource Management (GPFARM) model in simulating forage and cow‐calf production in the central Great Plains. The forage production module was tested in shortgrass prairie using April‐October monthly biomass values from 2000 through 2002 for warm-season grasses (WSG), cool-season grasses (CSG), shrubs, and forbs. The forage module displayed excellent (99% explained variance) agreement in the 2001 calibration year in tracking growth and senescence trends of WSG and CSG, which constitute the vast majority of the aboveground biomass. Less agreement (35%‐39% explained variance) was observed for shrubs and forbs. The model-explained variances of biomass in 2000 and 2002 (verification years) were 80% for WSG, 67% for CSG, 78% for shrubs, and 82% for forbs. Further development is needed to improve predicted plant response to environmental stresses. The cow‐calf production module was tested in northern mixed-grass prairie using June‐November monthly average cow and calf weights from 1996 through 2001 for March-calving, moderately stocked Hereford pairs. Overall, GPFARM performed well and tracked cow (81% explained variance) and calf (94% explained variance) pre- and postweaning weights. The GPFARM model has functional utility for simulating forage and cow‐calf production with satisfactory accuracy at semiarid-temperate sites, such as southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Continued development will focus on improving plant response to environmental stresses and testing the model’s functionality as a decision support tool for strategic and tactical ranch management. Resumen