Evaluation of Glacial Lakes and Catastrophic Floods on the Northern Slopes of the Kyrgyz Range

Dambaru Ballab Kattel,Mirlan Daiyrov,Zheenbek Kulenbekov,Ashutosh Mohanty,Binod Dawadi,Manoranjan Mishra,Weicai Wang

doi:10.1659/mrd-journal-d-19-00068.1

Abstract

The changing climate in the 20th and 21st centuries has had a profound impact on glacial lake formation and downwasting. The rapid receding of glaciers due to increased atmospheric temperature has caused glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the nival–glacial belt region on the northern slopes of the Kyrgyz mountain range over the last 20 years. Catastrophic events downstream due to GLOFs are increasing in this region and could affect the natural environment, human lives, and property. This study aims to evaluate the spatial distribution and growth of glacial lakes on the northern slopes of the Kyrgyz range using semiautomated remote sensing and field techniques. We recorded 273 glacial lakes and examined the characteristics of 5 small GLOFs that occurred between 2000 and 2012 due to moraine collapse. Further, the findings highlight alarmingly rapid changes and a high probability that these lakes will burst soon. Remote sensing, geographic information system, and statistical techniques combined with field-based knowledge are effective in identifying and monitoring the catastrophic nature of GLOFs on the northern slopes of the Kyrgyz range. The study recommends creating a spatial database inventory of both glacial lakes and GLOFs in the region using high-resolution satellite images and in-situ field techniques.

Highlights

Glacier-related floods, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), are well documented in almost all mountain ranges around the world, but the hazard characteristics of these fluctuating lakes are poorly recorded (Hock et al 2019; IPCC 2019)
The objective of the present study is to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of glacial lakes using remote sensing and global information system (GIS) data combined with field knowledge of the northern slopes of the Kyrgyz mountain range
The rate of warming has been considerably higher in the last few decades (Bolch 2007; Giese et al 2007; Hu et al 2014)

Summary

Introduction

Glacier-related floods, including glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), are well documented in almost all mountain ranges around the world, but the hazard characteristics of these fluctuating lakes are poorly recorded (Hock et al 2019; IPCC 2019). The northern slopes of the Kyrgyz range are frequently affected by GLOFs, landslides, and rainfallinduced mudflows (Blagoveshchenskiy and Yegorov 2009; Bolch et al 2011). GLOFs are the most dangerous of these and have been occurring repeatedly in this region recently. In the last decade, alpine GLOFs have been in the news due to their devastating impacts in both intensity and magnitude. Climate change appears to exacerbate the situation, resulting in a higher incidence of GLOFs, in addition to other hazards (Aryal 2012), in high mountain regions across the Third Pole (Yao et al 2019). Sustainable development in the region is at risk from emerging and intensifying cryospheric changes (IPCC 2019)

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