Abstract
Vulnerability refers to the ability of a country or a region to resist internal and external natural factors such as ecological environment, economy, and society during its development. Germany is a country with low overall vulnerability and distinct regional differences, so research on its regional vulnerability can be a representative case for developing countries, as it provides a comprehensive assessment of regional vulnerability via scientific methodology and at the same time proposes rational solutions. The research collects quarterly data of 16 states of Germany from 2000 to 2015. This study describes a series of features of the data and establishes a comprehensive assessment of regional vulnerability including 33 indicators. Combined with the multi-criteria decision analysis method (MCDM), the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and the entropy method are applied to calculate the weights. A linear weighted sum method is applied to obtain the regional vulnerability index of Germany. Afterwards, by performing regression tests, this study empirically assess the influencing factors of the regional vulnerability of Germany. Moreover, this study adopts the neural network training model and forecasts the regional vulnerability of Germany of 2016 to 2020. This study identifies the main factors that influence the regional vulnerability of Germany, and proposes policy implications on the overall regulation to reduce the vulnerability of different regions in Germany accordingly.
Highlights
The concept of vulnerability first appeared in the study of natural disasters
Contributing to existing literature on regional vulnerability, this study provides a scientific basis for assessing regional vulnerability and mitigating socioecological problems of Germany, including resource depletion, environmental destruction, as well as optimizing the mode of economic growth
The regional vulnerability defined in this paper is the comprehensive vulnerability of geographical regions based on analysis of spatial variation of Germany, including economic, social and environmental factors
Summary
The concept of vulnerability first appeared in the study of natural disasters. With the expansion and deepening of research methods, the assessment and application of vulnerability are no longer limited to geography. Contributing to existing literature on regional vulnerability, this study provides a scientific basis for assessing regional vulnerability and mitigating socioecological problems of Germany, including resource depletion, environmental destruction, as well as optimizing the mode of economic growth. The regional vulnerability defined in this paper is the comprehensive vulnerability of geographical regions based on analysis of spatial variation of Germany, including economic, social and environmental factors. Wang (2014) analyzed a series of social indicators which influence vulnerability, such as road area per capita, disposable income per capita, number of college students per 10,000 people, proportion of science and technology expenditure to local fiscal expenditure etc These social factors have potential impact on social vulnerability in terms of social services, social progress, and social life. This study forecasts the regional vulnerability index of Germany using the neural network training model
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
