Evaluation of Genomic Prediction for Fusarium Head Blight Resistance with a Multi-Parental Population.

Abstract

Simple SummaryGenomic selection is a promising approach to select superior wheat lines with better resistance to Fusarium head blight. The accuracy of genomic selection is determined by many factors. In this study, we found a training population with large size, genomic selection models incorporating biological information, and multi-environment modelling led to considerably better predictabilities. A training population designed by the coefficient of determination (CDmean) could increase accuracy of prediction. Relatedness between training population (TP) and testing population is the key for accuracies of genomic selection across populations. Fusarium head blight (FHB) resistance is quantitatively inherited, controlled by multiple minor effect genes, and highly affected by the interaction of genotype and environment. This makes genomic selection (GS) that uses genome-wide molecular marker data to predict the genetic breeding value as a promising approach to select superior lines with better resistance. However, various factors can affect accuracies of GS and better understanding how these factors affect GS accuracies could ensure the success of applying GS to improve FHB resistance in wheat. In this study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of factors that affect GS accuracies with a multi-parental population designed for FHB resistance. We found larger sample sizes could get better accuracies. Training population designed by CDmean based optimization algorithms significantly increased accuracies than random sampling approach, while mean of predictor error variance (PEVmean) had the poorest performance. Different genomic selection models performed similarly for accuracies. Including prior known large effect quantitative trait loci (QTL) as fixed effect into the GS model considerably improved the predictability. Multi-traits models had almost no effects, while the multi-environment model outperformed the single environment model for prediction across different environments. By comparing within and across family prediction, better accuracies were obtained with the training population more closely related to the testing population. However, achieving good accuracies for GS prediction across populations is still a challenging issue for GS application.