Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal—a case study

Abstract

Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling precipitation in the three climatic regions of Nepal. The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using large-scale atmospheric variables encompassing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the validation of the model, and the outputs of downscaled scenarios A2 and B2 of the HadCM3 model for the future. The average R2 value during validation period was 0.84, indicating the good applicability of SDSM for simulating precipitation. Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the prediction period of 2010–2099, the change of annual mean precipitation in the three climatic regions would present a tendency of surplus of precipitation as compared to the mean values of the base period. On the average for all three climatic regions of Nepal, the annual mean precipitation would increase by about 13.75 % under scenario A2 and increase near about 11.68 % under scenario B2 in the 2050s. The model showed better performance over humid region; moreover, simulated results for the peak monsoon months seem to be overestimated over subhumid and arid regions.