Evaluation of Future-Integrated Urban Water Management Using a Risk and Decision Analysis Framework: A Case Study in Denver–Colorado Metro Area (DCMA)

Abstract

This study examines the DCMA concerning the future risk of the water security status. We considered three risk factors: population growth, economic growth, and natural water supply–demand differences. In the risk analysis part, we consulted with experts from several sectors including academia, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), and industry, to predict that the probability of future water stresses in high-, medium-, and low-risk scenarios are 0.73, 0.24, and 0.03, respectively. In the decision analysis part, we adopted two multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approaches that include multiple attribute value theory (MAVT) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods to evaluate the best alternative decision to alleviate future water stresses in the DCMA. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that, although expanding existing water reservation might be a solution to tackle the challenge, the best option really closely connects to the weighting scheme of the criteria considered in the framework. This study provides a valuable risk and decision analysis framework to analyze the water security status associated with the future water supply and demand gap decrease caused by three risk factors: population growth, climate change, and natural water supply.