Evaluation of Future East Asia Drought Using Multi-Model Ensemble

Abstract

We analyzed the changes in precipitation and drought climatology over East Asia by global warming using the daily precipitation data from 14 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulations under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. The models were consistent in predicting an increase in the mean precipitation over East Asia. However, the increase was less significant in Southeast Asia, and was accompanied by even larger increase in precipitation variability. This predicted precipitation climatology was translated into a change in drought climatology using the effective drought index (EDI). According to the increased precipitation, East Asia tends to be wetter with a decreased frequency and duration of drought. However, because of the enhanced precipitation variability, extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent, especially over Southeast Asia.