Evaluation of fusion study from socio-economic aspects

Abstract

A fusion research project was evaluated from the aspects of socio-economics and its possible economic benefit. Research project itself has large economic impacts and it appears in a different way in different time. Four categories were identified as such mechanisms; direct economic effect by purchase and employment, the growth of local community and its economy, an improvement of technical capability of the industry stimulated by the development, and fusion energy supply under environmental constraints. Industrial effects were analysed from actual R&D program and found to yield considerable economic outcome, although contribution by the research itself is far smaller than that required for industry before actual commercial products can be produced. Economic value of fusion energy could be huge, but appears several decades future, and should be reduced by discount rate and success probability. Its value is more important as a part of environmental policy. Value of the fusion research at present age cannot be estimated as actual benefit, but as the effectiveness in the policy, or benefit for public that is now regarded as a kind of Externality.