Evaluation of flights operation environment risk based on improved set pair analysis

Abstract

In order to resolve the complexity and uncertainty factors in evaluation of flights operation environment risk, firstly the environmental risk faced by flight operations is analyzed, and shortcomings of the current flights operation environment risk assessment methods are summarized. Then through the methods of analysis of environmental unsafe events, data statistics and expert discussion, the flights operation environment risk evaluation index system is established. Index weights are determined by analytic hierarchy process, and the evaluation results are quantified. Considering the deficiencies of the existing set pair analysis (SPA) method and the characteristics of flights operation environment risk evaluation, the rule for calculating the connection number in SPA is improved, and the evaluation model of flights operation environment risk based on improved SPA is established. Finally, the case analysis shows that the method fully considers environmental risk factors involved in flight operations, and combines the dialectical understanding and quantitative description organically. The improved SPA is a new method for evaluation of flights operation environment risk.