Evaluation of Effects of Car Ownership Policies in Chinese Megacities

Abstract

At the beginning of the catching-up phenomenon of personal motorization in China, two very different car ownership policies were implemented in megacities: Beijing adopted a no intervention policy and Shanghai adopted a license quota policy. This difference provides an opportunity to examine policy impacts on car ownership and usage. The effects of the two policies on car ownership levels and delays in the process of personal motorization were examined. The growth pattern of car ownership without intervention was estimated on the basis of city-level aggregate data and a principal component analysis. The results indicate that an increase in income is the dominant factor driving the growth of car ownership in China. The forecast result in Shanghai indicates that the limitation policy has suppressed car ownership by at least twice as many individuals as the number of individuals who actually own cars. The limited car ownership policy also delays the process of personal motorization; this delay provides authorities with more time and chances to improve alternative transport services to fill the demand for motorized travel. The practical experience in Shanghai and public attitude responses in Beijing emphasize the importance of supporting measures to complement the limited car ownership policy and the need to offer equitable car ownership opportunities for all groups.