Evaluation of ECPCs seasonal forecasts over the BALTEX region and Europe

Abstract

Since Sept. 26, 1997, the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near real-time seasonal global forecasts with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at seasonal time scales. and for regional areas, are provided on the world wide web, and digital experimental forecast products are made available to interested researchers. Are these forecasts useful for Europe? The purpose of this paper is to briefly describe the global forecast and analysis system, various biases and errors in the forecasts for BALTEX region and Europe, as well as the significant skill of seasonal forecasts. In particular, near-surface meteorological parameters, including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and soil moisture are skillful at weekly to seasonal time scales over much of Europe. Still, there are many improvements that can be made and the purpose of this paper is to provide a baseline for further development of the global model as well as various regional models.