Evaluation of damage probability of railway embankments in permafrost regions in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Abstract

The Qinghai–Tibet Railway (QTR) has been operating since 2006. It crosses continuous permafrost regions in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Half of these regions are characterized by high ground temperature and ice content, and slight changes in the permafrost may cause embankment damage. In this study, the deformed embankment data of the QTR collected from 2010 to 2018 were analyzed. The analysis results showed that the total length of deformed embankments of the QTR in the permafrost regions was 22.97 km, and the damage rate since its completion in 2006 was approximately 5.4%. The results also indicated that the embankments stabilized over time. In 2010, the deformed embankments that were reinforced consisted of 26 sites and were 7.64-km long, whereas in 2018, only a 0.48-km long site was reinforced. In this study, a damage probability model of the embankments is developed. The damage probability of the embankments along the QTR in permafrost regions was classified into five grades: slight, low, moderate, high, and extremely-high damage probability levels. The total lengths of embankment sections with slight, low, moderate, high, and extremely-high levels of damage probability are 190.38, 161.42, 61.72, 13.51, and 2.99 km, respectively. It is suggested that damage-free embankment sections with high and extremely-high levels of damage probability should be monitored more closely during railway embankment maintenance. This study provides a reference for the application of the logistic regression model to establish the damage probability model of railway embankments in permafrost regions. • Statistically analysis of ten years’ worth of monitoring and reinforcement data of QTR embankments. • Distribution of deformed QTR embankments and embankment damage rate in permafrost regions. • Causes of embankment deformation, case records of reinforcement and maintenance measures. • Model to evaluate the damage probability of QTR embankments in permafrost regions.