Evaluation of COVID-19 epidemic outbreak caused by temporal contact-increase in South Korea

Abstract

ObjectivesOn March 15, 2020, 61.3% of the confirmed cases of COVID-19 infection in South Korea are associated with the worship service that was organized on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu. We aim to evaluate the effects of mass infection in South Korea and assess the preventive control intervention. MethodUsing openly available data of daily cumulative confirmed cases and deaths, the basic and effective reproduction numbers was estimated using a modified susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered-type epidemic model. ResultsThe basic reproduction number was estimated to be R0=1.77. The effective reproduction number increased approximately 20 times after the mass infections from the 31 st patient, which was confirmed on February 9 in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, Daegu. However, the effective reproduction number decreased to less than unity after February 28 owing to the implementation of high-level preventive control interventions in South Korea, coupled with voluntary prevention actions by citizens. ConclusionPreventive action and control intervention were successfully established in South Korea.