Evaluation of Countries’ Capacities for Addressing Climate Change in the Post-Paris Era

Abstract

The Paris Agreement signed in 2015 basically established the post-2020 international climate system. The agreement no longer emphasizes the differences between countries of the North and South. It requested each country to outline and communicate their post-2020 climate actions, which were legally termed as “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs). However, in the process of negotiating the implementation rules and regulations, there is still a big divide between developing and developed countries. Thus it is important to evaluate countries’ responsibilities, obligations and capacities for addressing climate change in the post-Paris era. By adopting the Delphi method, this paper establishes a more comprehensive index system to quantitatively evaluate countries’ capacities for addressing climate change, and to further identify and determine their capacities under the Paris Agreement. According to the evaluation results, there is still a large gap between developed and developing countries in their capacities for addressing climate change. Developing countries with weak capacities fall behind mainly in terms of the industrialization process, Human Development Index (HDI) and urbanization rate. Developed countries with strong capacities lack commitments and actions in terms of helping developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This paper, by expanding the use of the Delphi method with a multi-dimensional evaluation system that includes a historical responsibility index, attempts to provide a reference for differentiating countries’ capacities and responsibilities in global climate governance, and to promote a more equitable and reasonable global climate governance system.