Evaluation of CORDEX-RCMS and their driving GCMs of CMIP5 in simulation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its future projections

Abstract

Climate models are widely used for global and regional assessment of climate change. The present study aims to assess the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and their driving global climate models (GCMs) of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over India (1979–2005). The assessment of CORDEX-RCMs driven by the boundary conditions from GCMs is necessary to know the capability of RCMs in the simulation of ISMR over India. The spatiotemporal analysis of ISMR is performed for past periods to understand its characteristics while attempt is made for future projected changes over the homogeneous rainfall region of India. The study reveals that RCM REMO2009 (MPI) and its driving GCM MPI-ESM-LR are close to the observed rainfall of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). Further, it is noticed that the biases in REMO2009 (MPI) and GCMs viz. MPI-ESM-LR and GFDL-CM3 are of comparable amplitude making them suitable for future projection of ISMR for 2016–2045 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 at 99% and 95% confidence levels. In the simulation of REMO2009 (MPI) and its driving GCM (MPI-ESM-LR) under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, an excess of rainfall is possible over the parts of Peninsular India (PI) and West Central India (WCI) while a deficit over the North West India (NWI). The simulation of the GCM, GFDL-CM3 depicts an excess of rainfall over NWI, PI, and deficit over WCI under both emission scenarios.